ON THE ROAD TO INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION.
By Benjamin Fox, 6 January 2026 06:00
Speculation is growing that the Trump administration will join its close ally Israel in recognising the breakaway republic of Somaliland — in a move that would deeper its existing rift with Brussels about the Horn of Africa. On 27 December, Israel became the first country to recognise Somaliland. A semi-autonomous territory in northern Somalia, Somaliland declared independence in 1991 at the start of a lengthy civil war in Somalia. Israel has offered financial support in exchange for a military base and Somaliland accepting an as yet unspecified number of Palestinian refugees. Officials in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, have been confident that the Trump administration will recognise their statehood ever since the November 2024 presidential election.
High-profile Trump Africanists Tibor Nagy and Peter Pham authored a section promoting Somaliland’s independence in the Heritage Foundation’s ‘Project 2025’, a manifesto for the Trump administration by the hard-right Washington think-tank. Somaliland’s maritime geography on the Gulf of Aden makes it a strong alternative to Djibouti, currently home to the biggest US base in Africa. Djibouti also hosts military bases for France, Italy and China. Recognising Somaliland could give the US easier access to Berbera port and airfield, with one of the longest runways in the region, resources that the US’ Africa Command has lacked since being forced to abandon its mission in Niger by the governing military junta. Two bills supporting Somaliland’s statehood are currently before the US Congress. Both are bipartisan but the bulk of their support comes from Republican lawmakers. For the moment, the Trump administration is hedging its bets. “Does anyone know what Somaliland is, really?” asked Trump in an interview with the New York Post published on 26 December. But at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on 29 December which discussed Somaliland, deputy US ambassador to the UN staunchly defended Israel’s decision.
However, sources in Washington say that they were surprised by how quick the EU was in insisting that Somalia’s sovereignty could not be compromised, a far cry from the weak statements issued by EU diplomats following the kidnapping of Venezuala’s president Nicholas Maduro. EU foreign affairs spokesman Anouar El Anouni said the bloc “reaffirms the importance of respecting the unity, the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.” The EU has been one of Somalia’s main external supporters since the formation of Somalia’s federal government in 2012 that followed several decades of civil war, having spent more than €3.5bn on aid and defence support programmes .
Brussels has been the main funder of a series of security missions, backed by the UN and African Union combatting Al-Shabaab, the latest iteration of which, the African Union Security and Stability Mission (AUSSOM), saw its mandate extended for another year in December. Last month, EU and African Union officials urged the wider international community to reach agreement on the funding of the AUSSOM mission. The US claims that it has been paying too much and wants the UN to be responsible for the bulk of its costs. The EU also confirmed in December that it would continue to provide financial support to the mission for 2026 having pumped in well over €2.7bn since 2007. The EU also finances a mission combating maritime privacy in the Red Sea.
100 US attacks under Trump
The US has carried out more than 100 air attacks against armed groups in Somalia since Trump returned to the White House in January, according to the New America Foundation, a liberal think-tank based in Washington DC. A major increase on previous years after US defence secretary Pete Hegseth scrapped rules that required White House approval for strikes outside warzones. The attacks are almost entirely aimed at groups affiliated to Al Shabaab and the Islamic State. The US has been the other big supporter of the anti-Al Shabaab mission, but the Trump administration has been far more critical of the government in Mogadishu than its Biden and Obama predecessors. Trump has made his government’s approach to Africa far more transactional, focused on advancing US military interests as well as access to critical minerals. Complicating the situation have been Trump’s incendiary anti-Somali remarks in recent weeks. Trump described Somalian immigrants in the US as “garbage”.
Within the US, the Somali community is also accused by supporters of Trump of benefiting from fraud in Medicaid-funded services in Minnesota, which are currently under investigation by the FBI. Both Somalia and Somaliland have retained lobbyists with impeccable MAGA connections in recent weeks. Roger Stone, one of Trump’s long-time allies, and who received a presidential pardon in 2020 after being sentenced to more than four years in jail for obstructing the Mueller inquiry into Russian interference in the 2016 US election, has been retained by the Somalian government. The contract, filed on 18 December, is worth more than $500,000 [€427,000] per year. Somaliland has hired its own MAGA-connected consultancy, Nestpoint Associates, to promote its case for independence with Trump administration officials.
Author Bio.
Benjamin Fox is a seasoned reporter and editor, previously working for fellow Brussels publication Euractiv. His reporting has also been published in the Guardian, the East African, Euractiv, Private Eye and Africa Confidential, among others. He heads up the AU-EU section at EU observer, based in Nairobi, Kenya.